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NEW Audio programme: Post-Budget Special Briefing - Property Investment: your Q&A
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Olly Newland Articles


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OLLY NEWLAND COLUMN
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Olly's classic - highly relevant

Lost Property

The Crash of 1987 ... and the aftershock
"A must-read for investors...warnings and lessons to help you succeed."

Click here to order
or Call 0800 66 22 55.



Olly's latest book

Climbing the Property Ladder

Tales of Profit and (mis)Adventure in the Real Estate Jungle. "Valuable lessons, rules and insights -- and some breathtaking true stories about how property deals have changed people's lives."

Just $34.95 + $5 P&H.
Click here to order
or Call 0800 66 22 55.



Olly's classic book

The Rascal's Guide® to Real Estate

In this brilliant book, Olly Newland delivers investors an honest, fearless handbook for making money as an investor ... and avoiding the traps! Updated 2nd edition.

Just $39.95 + $5 P&H.
Click here to order
or Call 0800 66 22 55.




The Day the Bubble Bursts

Protect yourself and profit from the coming real estate slump. What goes up must come down. This book spells out the reasons for the coming property downturn and shows you how to protect your assets and profit from the opportunities that will arise.

Just $29.95 + $5 P&H.
Click here to order
or Call 0800 66 22 55.




Commercial RE Guide

Commercial Real Estate Investor's Guide.

Whether you're a novice or seasoned investor, Commercial Real Estate Investor's Guide will fill gaps in your knowledge and show you how to succeed in this profitable field.

$49.95 + $5 P&H
Click here to order

Property Tax updated

Property Tax -- A New Zealand Investor's Guide. UPDATED

This book is a concise guide to essential information about tax as it relates to property investment. This is information you need to succeed in property -- and how to make sure you're paying no more than you have to, while claiming your legal deductions.

$34.95 + $5 P&H
Click here to order

Property Law Guide

Property Law -- A New Zealand Investor's Guide.

Know the facts -- avoid the traps
An easy-to-follow guide to real estate law, written by an investor, for investors - Property Law demystifies key legal issues in property transactions - and shows you how to avoid the traps.

$34.95 + $5 P&H
Click here to order



Brilliant Real Estate Calculator

NEW MODEL: Real Estate Master III calculator.
Don't leave home without it!
This simple yet powerful mortgage calaculator is brilliantly easy to use. Use any three of [interest, term, loan amount, payment] to solve the fourth. Lots of other cool features.
Just $139.95 + $5 P&H. (And worth every penny.)
Click here for more details and to order or Call 0800 66 22 55.


New Arrivals.
Empower Education Ltd
PO Box 39-115 Howick Auckland New Zealand
Tel 09 535 2415 Fax 09 535 2416
info@EmpowerEducation.com

Prices listed in New Zealand dollars and are subject to change.



LATEST COLUMN:
The Gathering Storm

Olly Newland's Column, July 2010

In this column, I would like to cover a variety of topics, as the last few weeks have been crammed with 'news' and opinions about the property market - and much of it arrant, dangerous nonsense.

Some folk in the news media and posters on various websites have had a field day predicting the imminent collapse of the property market. They continue to be spectacularly wrong, it should be noted.

These deluded commentators seem to believe that if property prices fell by 20% to 30% (as some have predicted) then they, and their children would be able to buy a house more cheaply in the future and that would be a wonderful thing. They think a massive drop in the market would make housing 'more affordable'.

What they cannot understand is if that really happened hundreds of thousands of Kiwis would be out of work, much of our economy and industry would come to a virtual halt, the banks would collapse and New Zealand would be reduced to a nation of ragged beggars left to shuffle through the two dollar shops and rifle garbage bins.

Jobless and with an economy in ruins it wouldn't matter if houses were a third of their present price. They would still be unaffordable.

It will cause some consternation to these nay-sayers to learn this week, that house prices are still well up on this time last year despite the usual upside down view some in the media always make of these things.

link: http://nz.biz.yahoo.com/100711/3/k6u6.html

I always derive much amusement in the way the media portray good news through the wrong end of the telescope. The headline in this example says: "House prices fall further in June".

It's not until you read down further that in fact house prices are still 5.2% higher than at this time last year and the slippage (if you can call it that) is a statistically insignificant 0.4%. Put another way, it is effectively a yearly increase on the current average price of $404,715 by a respectable $21,045 (or approximately twice the rate of inflation!)

Read the rest of this column


After the Budget is over

Olly Newland's Column, June 2010

2010 Budget Day has come and gone and the world has not come to an end.

Finance minister Bill English spelt out how he was going to deal to 'property speculators' and frankly I found it hard to suppress a yawn. I must confess that I was somewhat irritated to hear him snarling about 'speculators'.

Didn't we leave that all behind in the 1970s when the Kirk/Rowling Labour Government clamped down on 'speculators' with punitive taxes ... and pushed up prices by over 50% as a consequence?

The removal of depreciation on both residential and commercial property while reducing personal and company tax means a re-shuffling of the deck chairs and very little else. Any professional who has passed Accountancy Stage One will find another means to reduce tax legally -- of that I am sure.

So what's all the gnashing of teeth all about? Be content if you have to pay tax and GST, I say. It means that you are making a profit!

For years I have taught that investors should be in the market to make profits, not losses. Too often I have had people come to me seeking advice who have bought rubbish properties just to create a loss. (It beggars belief that anyone can think in this manner but there you have it. They believe what they're told by the get-rich quick spruikers.)

I used to cringe when I read or saw adverts that said 'Let the tax man pay off your property.' How dumb is that? Just asking for trouble.

Of course there will be consequences. Bill (call me 'Slasher') English says Treasury has admitted that rents may rise by 'one or two percent' as a result of the new rules. Well I've got news for Bill and all the Noddies in Treasury: Rents will rise all right -- but more like 15%-20% over the next two to three years would be closer to the mark in my estimation.

Have they forgotten the effects of the GST increases on costs? And what about the Carbon ETS due to hit all our pockets in a month or two? Rates, fuel, electricity, insurance, timber, concrete, steel, you name it -- ALL will be going UP in price ... and adding fuel to inflation.

The government already admits that these extra costs will result in a 6% inflation factor. It goes without saying that if they admit that much you can be sure it will be higher.

Read the rest of this column


Rents 'Sure to Rise'

Olly Newland's Column, April 2010

The latest statistics make interesting reading indeed. What they show is there has been a huge surge in people choosing to rent. There will be serious consequences if this trends continues ... which I am sure it will.

Many have come to realise that renting is still far cheaper than owning especially while capital growth remains so elusive.

The last surge in renting was in 2008 but for different reasons. The rise in house prices and the higher interest rates prevalent at the time forced people into renting. Now the picture and the reasons have completely changed.

The following article by Mr B Hickey of interest.co.nz demonstrates what is happening in the market. (Although he and I draw different conclusions.)

Rents unchanged for 2 years despite surge in numbers renting
April 9th, 2010
New Zealand's median weekly rent was unchanged at NZ$300 in March from NZ$300 in both March 2009 and March 2008, but the number of New Zealanders lodging bond rentals has surged in the month by more than 54% to 19,683 in the last two years as many opt to rent rather than own. ...

Read the Hickey article at interest.co.nz

Investors should note well what these statistics are saying and then connect the dots ... or miss out on the bonanza to come.

Read the rest of this column


Pressure from all sides

Olly Newland's Column, March 2010

NZ Prime Minister John Key made a fundamental blunder when he recently delivered to Parliament his views -- the government's views -- of the proposals from the Tax Working Group.

Quite rightly he booted out the looney leftist ideas of land tax and capital gains tax (typical notions that arise from those whose lives are filled with envy whenever they see people other than themselves doing well).

However he caved in on one recommendation and gave a clear signal that the treatment of depreciation on investment property would be attacked in the Ministers of Finance's Budget due out in May.

What the new measures would be was not made clear. No details were given ... so the public has been left guessing about the imminent new measures. Neither, it seems, has anyone considered what the flow-on effects may be -- and what unintended consequences may eventuate.

Even more disappointingly, by innuendo the Prime Minister appeared to go along with the suggestion that property investors act as some kind of free-loading extortionists ripping of the system while swimming up to their armpits in ill-gotten gains.

It appears that he chose to be 'the populist' -- swayed by the ignorant masses who bay for blood, revel in public hangings, while cutting everyone down to size at the first opportunity.

The government as a whole has stumbled badly this time, which is hard to understand given that the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance, Bill English, both have a good background in finance. Surely their collective wisdom would have taught them one thing:

Uncertainty creates unease and unease creates distortions.

Read the rest of this column


Olly Newland in the news

Olly on TV3 News 18 Jan 2010: Video | Article


The Year Ahead

Olly Newland's Column, January 2010

A Happy New Year to you - and hopefully a prosperous one as well.

Last year was not a particularly good year. There were times when we thought that the end of civilisation was at hand. Prospects look a lot better now - but I feel that any real recovery could be brittle. Having said that, I'd estimate there is a 50/50 chance that the economy and property prices will remain FLAT during the next 12 months.

As suggested in my last column (available here) I think there's a 25% chance of another round of recessionary events and maybe a 25% chance of massive inflation (or hyper inflation) ... especially considering the jaw-dropping amounts of funny money central banks around the world are pumping into economies.

So-called 'experts' humbled
At the beginning of last year several 'expert' commentators predicted falls in property prices of up to 30%. The media loved it, of course, and published breathless, lurid stories based on these silly predictions. In contrast, I came out and predicted a flat market and that, more or less, is what it has been.

Average prices dipped a little - virtually within the margin of error - and have now, according the statistics, recovered almost all their notional losses. Not so lucky were developers and finance companies who took the brunt of the day the bubble burst.

Predictions are always tricky, but even so, those so-called experts have been discredited - revealing, in some notable cases, that they possess only a shallow understanding of how the property market actually works. In the same vein, whatever you may think of the pointy head at the Reserve Bank, they have got one thing right in my opinion: low or moderate interest rates are the key to recovery and prosperity.

To be sure, there are dangers in too-low interest rates, just as there are dangers in too-high interest rates. These dangers are:

Read the rest of this column


Olly Newland's Column, November 2009

I was privileged to be invited again to be part of Empower Education's annual MARKET UPDATE for investors held earlier this month. I always enjoy these evenings as a good chance to catch up with friends and clients and also to get the valuable perspective of the other speakers.

At this event I was joined by Westpac's chief economist Brendan O'Donavan and Mark Withers' switched on business partner and chartered accountant Stephen Tsang.

We don't always agree about everything, indeed we often clash (respectfully) with our views. It's always very interesting to hear other perspectives, to trade stories, and compare strategies and what we see as market indicators.

The organiser of the event, Peter Aranyi gives us all a free hand to discuss what we like, so that the audience can soak in all the views and opinions knowing that what they hear is the truth as each of us sees it. (You can read Peter's review of the evening here.)

The global financial picture, NZ's own recession and its out-workings, and the idea of tax reform -- as you can imagine -- were all topics which loomed large in our discussions, as I'm sure they do in board rooms and kitchens throughout the country.

Double-dip or single dip? -- Are we heading for another asset bubble?
With governments all around the world pumping funny-money onto the system, things could get out of control in a sudden way. (Just as the credit crisis took everyone by surprise.) I have lived through inflation in the 1980s with 18% inflation per annum, 22% interest rates -- and 1,000% p.a. for overnight money. Those were not pleasant times, just as now is not a pleasant time for many people.

I surveyed the audience and asked how many people had been affected by the current recession directly -- or knew someone close to them who had been affected. Almost every hand went up.

In my view (not totally disagreed with by the other speakers) there is a strong chance that, instead of the steady recovery we are told to expect, we may have yet another major bubble building up.

Personally, I think the chances are better than 1 in 4, so keep your eyes and ears open at all times.

Read the rest of this column


Olly Newland speaking at Empower Education's recent MARKET UPDATE evening.
Click here to read a detailed review of the event, or click here for details of an Audio CD set with Course Notes.


Blue Chip and Mark Bryers

Olly Newland's Column, 1 September 2009

It's worth reading an article that appeared in the National Business Review on Friday 28 August 2009 (link here).

For those that have followed this story or know victims who have suffered from the activities of Blue Chip and Mark Bryers, the slow emergence of justice and retribution must make grimly sweet reading indeed.

I became involved with Blue Chip in late 2007 when a new client came to my office complaining that the interest on his home loan had not been paid by Blue Chip as had been agreed. This statement startled me and so I agreed to look through the mountain of paper work that was dumped on my desk.

Eight weeks of intensive study -- and personal meetings with Bryers and his cohorts -- convinced me that there was something seriously amiss. By January 2008 I was sure. ...

Read the rest of this column


Dodgy Dealers - what to look out for

Olly Newland's Column, 18 June 2009

PROPERTY IS, by its very nature, a big ticket item. It's no wonder then, that the property game attracts a variety of scam artists and fraudsters, as well as those who just push the ethical envelope whenever they think they can get away with it.

We have all seen or read the suffering of those who have been caught up in dodgy deals. The likes of BlueChip, Merlot Investments, and the real estate agents from the respected firm of Barfoot & Thompson who abused their position in a multimillion dollar mortgage scam -- to name a few.

As unappetising as it may be, it's necessary for you as an investor to know how to recognise the 'dirty tricks' of the property game. A little knowledge -- and a vigilant mindset -- will help you stay out of the clutches of those who would do you financial harm. Pay attention, lest one of these type of deals is ever presented to you.

Property finders and Sandwich deals
Traditionally, property finders -- sometimes also known as buyer's advocates -- are licensed real estate agents who specialise in seeking suitable properties for their clients, who may not have the time or inclination to look for themselves. This is a legitimate and very useful service and is widely respected, especially overseas in larger markets where the selection is enormous.

In New Zealand this profession is fulfilled by local real estate agents on a smaller scale.

Unfortunately, scam artists have climbed aboard in NZ and, trumpeting themselves as property finders (although NOT actually licensed agents), are playing a game called 'sandwiching'. Their objective is to simply insert themselves between a legitimate seller and a legitimate buyer with the aim of picking up a quick profit.

Some even hold themselves as 'property educators' or wealth 'coaches' ... but they are not the least bit concerned about the welfare of either party, nor any stress and suffering they may cause. Most importantly, their scheme is designed to carry no risk to themselves -- to the disadvantage of the vendor, these 'traders' don't have the slightest intention of ever buying the property themselves.

How it works....

Read the rest of this column


Mortgage nightmare: A Guide to Mortgagee sales

Olly Newland's Column, 31 May 2009

'Mortgagee Sale.' These two words can strike terror into the heart of any property owner. A mortgagee sale can destroy families, businesses, and lives. Over the last year more property owners in financial difficulty have faced the loss of their home or investment to the pay off the lender.

Sometimes the dreaded situation arises from an innocent change of circumstances (job loss, marriage split etc). But sometimes it results from the greed or naivety of those who believed the hype that property prices would rise forever. Now, with the 'worst recession in 70 years' sapping the economies of the world, the lesson has to be taught all over again: What goes up must go down.

In March this year forced home sales hit a 15-year record of 201 properties according to Terralink. This 'worrying trend' showed that 'there were still a lot of distressed owners through out the country' according to Terralink.

Other statistics support this view: Trademe reported an increase of 231% of forced sales in the last twelve months alone. The large number of advertisements appearing for mortgagee sales is evidence we can all see that this explosive increase is not a myth but a sober reality.

What's worse is that a mortgagee sale is the highly visible 'end-game' of a long process. I estimate that for every mortgagee sale that actually gets advertised there are at least another fifty property owners in distress but who manage to sell, refinance, or come to some arrangement under pressure before the hammer falls.

So let's discuss the basics of what really happens before and after the mortgagee sale process begins.

Read the rest of this column


'Mortgage nightmare' (Shorter version as Herald on Sunday column )
NZ_Herald Sunday 31 May 2008


The Next Ten Years: Shaky foundations

Olly Newland's Column, 17 May 2009

Against the backdrop of a deepening global recession no-one can say how long it will be before 'normality' returns to the market. We are told this is shaping up to be the deepest recession since the 1930s Great Depression. If that is the case, we are also told (and I agree with this) we should expect flow-on effects to the world economy -- possibly for a generation or more.

But let's leave the high-level prognostications to the economists. In our own backyard, property investors and home owners alike must ask the question: Will the property market as we know it survive, or must it too undergo a fundamental shift?

From where I sit, the next ten years will likely see a far tougher financial and credit environment. The reworking of the laissez-faire capitalist system which brought us to this point cannot be avoided. The refrain "let the free market decide" has lost its potency and appeal -- at least for now. The massive and unprecedented bailouts by world governments and the collapse (or forced mergers) of household names and companies both demand and drive eye watering changes.

As well as a re-ordering of credit rules, I predict there'll be a major shift in how we assess a potential property investment, particularly commercial property. Over the coming decade (and perhaps beyond) I foresee a permanent change in the investment environment and in different classes of property investment as we all respond to the emergence of the new, tougher financial order. Some types of real estate investment that were considered "hot" yesterday will become the disfavoured white elephants of tomorrow.

Read the rest of this column


'Shaky foundations' (Shorter version as Herald on Sunday column with Q&A)
NZ_Herald Sunday 17 May 2008


Know how to steer around disaster when times are tough

Five common investor mistakes (Olly's Herald on Sunday column)
NZ_Herald Sunday 3 May 2008


Olly on talkback radio with Wendyl Nissan Newstalk ZB Sunday 26 April 2009
Listen or download (MP3 - 24 mins)


Beware of false dawns

Olly Newland's Column, 19 April 2009

Like a hungry man falling on a morsel of food, some commentators and interest groups are in full cry over the (very slight) improvement in the property market. Houses are selling again, albeit at lower figures, and the mood is far more up-beat now than it was a few months ago. The main driver of this resurgence is, of course, lower interest rates.

Any market improvement is good, but I fear this may be a false dawn. Buyers might be rushing in too early. In their enthusiasm to re-live the 'good old days' they may be falling into a bigger trap than before.

There are two reasons why it would pay for buyers to be wary:

(1) Lower interest rates bring out not only buyers but sellers as well. Sellers, who have been hanging on by their fingertips up until now, are well aware the market has picked up -- and so are listing their properties at a fast clip. This could well swamp the relatively few buyers out there and cause another dip in house prices. Indeed, the statistics reveal that most sellers are taking a loss if they bought within the last 2-3 years.

(2) People have short memories. Only a year ago interest rates were on the rise and picked to go higher. Home owners and investors were crumbling under the weight of double-digit rates. Then along came the the 'Great Recession' and now interest rates are heading towards zero.

Question: Will this last?
Answer: No.

Read the rest of this column


Olly in the news...

Olly on talkback radio with Kerre Woodham Newstalk ZB Sunday 22 March 2009
Listen or download (MP3 - 29 mins)

Safe tenancies way to prosper (Olly's Herald on Sunday column)
NZ_Herald Sunday 22 March 2009

Olly on 3 News
Watch 3 News VIDEO
or at You Tube

February Auckland property sales up for Barfoot & Thompson.
Olly Newland: "Activity is up, ...hopefully this is not just a blip but a sign of better things to come"
Read article at 3 News
5 March 2009


The Great Reckoning (Part 3)

12 February 2009

Take a Deep Breath

The question on everyone's mind is, 'Are we really in a recession? Or aren't we?'

We read or hear about huge staff lay-offs around the world, massive drops in corporate profits (or historic losses), banks falling like dominoes. Presidents, Prime Ministers and politicians openly talk of disasters, crises and even use the dreaded 'D' word. Depression.

Yet, when we go about our daily business, the restaurants appear full, the shops appear to be fairly busy (mostly), cars still clog the motorway, and expensive boats of all sizes still cruise the harbour.

'What recession?' you may well ask.

The news tells us that interest rates have been slashed (even if these haven't flowed through to our mortgages yet -- see my earlier column), and around the world emergency measures are being taken. Mortgagee sales and company liquidations seem to flood the daily papers and it all seems rather depressing.

Then ask yourself a simple question: have you been personally affected?

Are we perhaps the victims of a con-job by politicians who are playing the 'crisis' theme because it makes us easier to govern and control? Certainly that's one possible suggestion from President Obama's recent fireside chat. He is seen to appeal direct to the American public to send a message to their local congressman to pass his 'new and improved' bailout package.

I think it is a mixture of both good and bad. Yes, there is a deepening recession which will get worse before it gets better and yes, I think the politicians are hyping it up to their advantage.

But I sense that the recession will be shorter and shallower then we are being led to believe. In my opinion, it is more likely that we will soon enter a long flat stage, perhaps next year -- which, by the way, given the alternative, is fine by me.

I can tell this from my mentoring and consulting clients -- who tell me of their successes or failures. Many are still upbeat and enthusiastic, seeing new opportunities ahead rather than collapse and doom.

This, among other things, gives me an insight and some perspective on what is happening in the market right now, rather than waiting for stale statistics to tell us when it's far too late. Furthermore I keep in very close contact with valuers and solicitors who confirm that conveyancy and enquires have picked up and are much more positive compared to a few months ago.

The worldwide printing presses keep rolling -- producing unimaginable amounts of money ...

Read the rest of this column


The Great Reckoning (Part 2)

4 February 2009

The Myth of Housing Affordability

There has been some noise in the news media of late: there are claims that housing has become more affordable due to influence of lower interest rates and lower median prices.

Excuse me while I laugh.

The fact is that housing is now even more un-affordable than before.
The sort of nonsense that says otherwise is typical of the spin that vested interest groups such as the banks, spruikers, and bureaucrats promulgate -- not to mention journalists who regurgitate the so-called 'facts' without necessarily questioning the validity of the claims.

Let's look at the figures for a start.
Below is the comparison table of the world's least affordable housing (wages versus prices) in years and months required to pay off the average house if living expenses are ignored.

1. Australia -- 6.0 years
2. New Zealand -- 5.7 years
3. Ireland -- 5.4 years
4. Britain -- 5.2 years
5. Canada -- 3.5 years
6. USA -- 3.2 years
(source: Demographia)

From this table we can see that Kiwis and Australians are right up there at almost double the USA figures -- despite the USA average house price having fallen around 25% in the past year or so. Put the other way, wages would have to almost double in NZ to match the affordability of the USA housing market (which itself is in deep distress).
The following report prepared by the Reserve Bank etc in March last year makes worth while reading. In a nutshell it confirms what we all know: Home affordability has decreased alarmingly in the past decade -- both for renters and prospective home owners. ...

Read the rest of this column


The Great Reckoning (Part 1)

27 January 2009

BY ANYONE'S STANDARDS, 2008 was not a good year. Banks, seemingly solid corporates, and finance companies collapsed like dominoes, 'bailout' was the new buzzword, and 'foreclosure' and 'mortgagee sale' were heard or read about on a daily basis.

The world, we are told, is in the grip of a financial crisis, the likes of which has not been seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The question on everyone's minds is: will 2009 be any better or will it, as forecast, just get worse?

Most of the pundits are saying (a) it will get worse and (b) it will take a long time before it gets better. This may well be true, but from my own past experience I am sure that whatever the scenario, the future holds out HUGE opportunities for those prepared to take cautious risks.

Having said that, I would like to start this new year with my (often unorthodox) views on a number of topics by way of painting a background for what I see coming in the months and years ahead.

The role of the banks
Readers of my books and previous articles will have surmised already that I have a healthy disrespect for banks and bankers. I don't harbour any disrespect for the almost universally sweet and helpful tellers, or even the bank managers (who are, after all, only mere ex-tellers in drag ). No, it is the faceless ones I distrust. Those who hide in 'Head Office', whose names are unknown -- but who hold the power of financial life and death over ordinary folk foolish (or unlucky) enough to be ensnared by their cunning ways.

Once upon a time a bank manager was your friend. You could talk to him or, increasingly, her. You could get real help and advice on a personal level. It was not unusual to have lunch together, or to meet for a beer after work, even to be invited home for a barbeque. That all ended in 1987 with the underhanded and often heartless modus operandi that followed. Now look where it has got us. ...

Read the rest of this column



THE PANEL: Olly Newland with Westpac Bank chief economist Brendan O'Donovan and accountant- author Mark Withers speaking to investors at Empower Education's MARKET UPDATE 9 Dec 2008.


The Morning After

November 2008

New Zealanders have a new government and a new cabinet. Some would call it a conservative government, not withstanding National's attempt to be 'inclusive' of selected minor parties.

John Key and his coalition partners just had to win the election, judging by the pre-election opinion polls. I would wager that Helen Clark and the Labour members are privately relieved that they don't have to deal with the mess this country and the rest of the world has gotten itself into.

The one very good thing about the NZ election result was that the outcome was clear cut. However able and enthusiastic John Key and his colleagues may be, the facts are that events on the international financial scene will overwhelm anything they had been planning to do. The forces at play are beyond the control of this government -- or any government for that matter.

It may not be the 'Financial Armageddon' John Key spoke of and which some others predict, but it still has to taken very seriously. It may be a near thing.

On the home front, it seems that we are going to endure a mini budget of sorts in December (shades of Muldoon). This will not deliver many Xmas goodies, you can be sure. Hopefully it will be more than merely a re-arrangement of deck chairs.

Some small vindication
I'm being sought out more and more these days by investors looking for guidance about their options in the dramatically changed market and lending conditions -- as well as those who have been caught short by the very reversal predicted in my book 'The Day the Bubble Bursts'.

I take no pleasure whatsoever in my warnings being proved right. As some critics have recently conceded, they're learning the hard way that I did actually know what I was talking about and that my advice was worth following.

In the book I set out a roster of warning signs to watch for to indicate that the housing bubble had indeed burst. Many of those indications have indeed come to pass. I also said that the implosion is usually started by an unexpected 'event' which triggers the end of the ride. In previous times it was an oil crisis or the collapse of the wool trade, or a share market crash. This time we have the mother of all credit crunches. This produced the effects predicted in the book -- and will produce a whole new layer of further unexpected problems...

Read the rest of this column


Smoke and Mirrors

September 2008

The Reserve Bank of NZ lowered the official cash rate by 0.5% and that's good.
The trouble is that's all it is -- good.

It will not solve the credit crunch.
It will not stop the recession.
It will not stop unemployment rising.
... and it won't stop the property market from sliding further.

We are caught in the slipstream of world events and, short of discovering huge oil deposits in the middle of Wellington Harbour, we will continue to be buffeted by the collapses and bail-outs that we have seen and read about -- locally and offshore.

As I write this, several big US financial institutions have collapsed or are on the point of collapse (Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG just the latest) in a string of events that, collectively, are unprecedented since the depression of 1929. There will be more to come, you can be sure of that.

All this was doubtless caused by the smoke and mirrors created by whiz kids with their new forms of financial instruments (derivatives of mortgage pools, Consolidated Debt Obligations etc) that nobody really understood... least of all them. Even more astonishing, the pillars of the banking world (Barclays, Chase, UBS, et al) bought them hook line and sinker.

As I have alluded to previously, the financial world has become a vast gambling den, dominated by those who delight in creating complex deals, rather than simply investing and getting fair profits in return.
For this folly we will all have to pay -- sadly some more than others.

If there is one thing to learn out of this credit crunch carnage it is this: 'Keep it simple'

Write that on your office wall and remind yourself of it every day.

On the local front, the coming General Election will tend to fudge matters as many eyes will be on the polls and the results. The Ancient Romans used the same trick to appease the masses with 'bread and circuses'.

It is my view that we are entering a quieter phase right now -- but it may only be temporary.

Read the rest of this column


Fools Rush In

August 2008

We are now about six months into the real property downturn. Until last December there was still a positive note -- despite the collapse of several finance companies and with other hints of worse to come.

Now there are those who say 'the worst is over' and that we can look forward to a more stable market and the resuming of the property bubble.
I do not believe that at all. Some optimists and their advisors are merely seeing a false dawn, in my view, and there is much more pain to come.

Since the beginning of the year, many more local finance companies have collapsed or shut their doors, and overseas the financial markets are still deep in trouble.
Sooner or later there will be a real crisis, with emergency measures to be taken -- and that will be the end of the beginning.
It often takes a crisis to solve a crisis.

Judging from previous experience, I'd say we are probably about one-third of the way through the problem, with much more unpleasantness to come, but (and this is an important distinction) only for a relatively FEW.

Learning from the past
During the 1987-1991 meltdown down both locally and internationally I was continually amazed to see that the restaurants were full, properties were still sold for good prices, people continued to go on expensive overseas trips and buy the finest wines.

This taught me that a recession (for that is officially what we are in) really only affects a small number of people. For many, it is business as usual. While 10% of the population may be suffering in the recession, 90% ARE NOT.

Now all this is good news indeed for many property owners and I, for one, am more optimistic than ever. Here's why...

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"Where are we in the property cycle?"

June 2008

One of the most telling signs of where we are in the property cycle (and economic cycle) appeared late last week in the form of an advertisement in the NZ Herald: Hanover Finance, one of the country's biggest finance companies, was offering an unprecedented 15.5% p.a. return to investors.

To my mind, this either smacks of desperation, or the smart guys at Hanover are convinced that massive inflation is knocking at the door.

Could this be the case? Is inflation going to rear its ugly head and repeat the 1980s all over again?

In my view the chances of this happening are high, and in a curious way, such events may be the answer to the 'technical recession' some say our economy is heading into.

When I spoke to a large group of investors one evening last week, the mood of the room was a clear harbinger of things to come.

It's my habit to poll an audience on where they see the market is at that point in time. In this way it is possible to conduct cutting-edge market research and get a picture that is right up to the minute.

It is in times like these that one realises that statistics are of some interest at best -- but often useless at worst. Statistics look backwards and tell what has been. What lies ahead can only be predicted by knowing what the market is thinking right now and then keeping constantly up to date. You can blame the current volatility of the financial markets for this -- a phenomenon that is quite new. ...

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Olly featured on TV One's Close Up recently on the topic: 'Property market crash? Or media beat up?'

You can view a video (7 min) on our'In the news' page HERE.



Keeping a cool head in a volatile market

March 2008

The property market has been in the headlines with increasing hysteria since before Christmas. A lot of the bad press has surrounded the collapse of numerous finance companies, the rise in mortgage interest rates and, increasingly, the Blue Chip fiasco (with which I have become regrettably all too familiar -- see below).

The credit crunch continues to bite overseas and here, with some big name banks and, of course, finance companies coming under more heat than is comfortable.

One commentator has stuck a flag in the ground and called a 'property crash' in 2008 or thereabouts as 'inevitable'. Naturally, the news media were all over that with relish. Is he right? What's the real position? And how might any such event affect what you want to do in property now?

Just ask the poor BlueChip investors. They have been among the first to feel the downturn. Many of them could write a book on their nightmare-ish experiences. Regrettably, there will be many more who will yet go through the pain that these folk are presently experiencing.

I first got involved in the saga when I was approached to help some investors who had signed over a large chunk of their equity to a Blue Chip scheme where three years later the promised apartment still hadn't been built.

With a bit of arm-twisting, number-crunching and lateral thinking I managed to get Blue Chip to cough up and refund their deposits -- several hundred thousand dollars. For another couple I arranged to have a Blue Chip contract cancelled putting them out of harms way.

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The Brakes Go On

THE BRAKES GO ON -- BIG DIVE IN HOUSE SALES
(NZ Herald 5/10/07)

October 2007

As usual the news has come months after the rest us in the business were very well aware of the facts already. Facing the facts early -- not late -- and taking defensive action are just some of the ways you can dodge the worst in a falling market.

I know from my own property trading that the market had already turned in the middle of the year, months before the current headlines -- which always come too late to be of any use.
At that time I noted the subdued response I got from a renovation project I was involved in, which told me that the time of bug-eyed panting investors buying everything in sight had truly come and gone.

As I've said before, 95% of the market does not have to buy or sell. They may want to, they may love to to, but if push comes to shove they don't have to. This leaves only the people who must sell or must buy -- and the must-sellers by far exceed the must-buyers.

At this time the rest of the market just decides that the froth has gone, the party is over (for now) and trying to juggle from one property to another and catch a once-in-a-lifetime profit is just 'too hard' ... so they stay put.

It is the urgent sales (one might even say 'forced' sales) by nervous and determined vendors, which will drive the market from now on.

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Are we on the edge of Credit Armageddon?

August-September 2007

The past few weeks have been nerve-wracking for investors and property owners. The ongoing problems with the subprime bad loans in the USA -- not to mention the huge volatility in the world stock markets -- do not bode well. Couple this with the extraordinary rise and fall (and rise, etc) of the NZ dollar, and general financial stress, and it's no wonder there is some sense of doom and gloom around.

But is it really all bad? Is the doom and gloom really just confusion?

As I write this column, the world stock markets are recovering (subject to change without notice). So is the NZ dollar, and the subprime market problem seems to have calmed down a bit -- for now anyway. Of course we keep hearing about the tremendous Fonterra pay-out for dairy farmers. Some of this will hopefully will trickle down to the cities. But in reality I would expect farmers to reduce debt rather than splash out.

Unfortunately, thrown into the mix are imploding finance companies -- casting a shadow over a billion dollars of Mum and Dad's money. It seems that it may get worse.

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Up She Rises

May 2007

Up She Rises

What shall we do with the drunken sailor?
What she we do with the drunken sailor?
What shall we do with he drunken sailor early in the morning?
Hooray-up she rises, Hooray-up she rises
Hooray-up she rises early in the morning. etc etc
(18th century sea shanty)

This catchy song stuck in my mind when Mr Bollard Governor of the Reserve Bank once again raised interest rates another quarter percent. This gives me the impression that all who work in the RB must be smoking or imbibing some strong stuff if they believe that interest rate hikes will achieve much if anything to dampen the housing market.

What a waste of time and effort. Does he really think that the property market gives a rat's bum whether or not he raises interest rates?
Property owners and investors alike have been having a non-stop wild party for years now and the band keeps playing on.

What can a small rate increase possibly do to stop the music?
Nothing!

Work it out for yourself...

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Look behind the hullabloo

March 2007

What a hullabaloo we had about the Minister of Finance Dr Michael Cullen's recent musings out loud about the taboo subject of Government intervention in the over-heated residential property market.

His suggestion on Morning Report there was some merit in looking into a 'mortgage levy' system to cool the market rattled a few teacups, to put it mildly.

As we know this was rapidly poo-pooed by Helen Clark and the idea soon disappeared in the face of widespread opprobrium; then gales of laughter from all sides -- apparently leaving the red-faced Michael Cullen right up the proverbial.

But it should come as no surprise to investors that finally the subject of government intervention has been raised at such a high level with the market being as strong as it is. The housing market's strength and longevity has, by the way, confounded all the pundits ...

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Half a century of Avoiding Dodgy Deals

December 2006

The end of this year marks my my 47th year in the property business ... having bought my first investment way back in 1959.
Admittedly it was only a 300 pound section in Titirangi but not bad at aged nineteen. My first house purchase was a home bought in 1962 in Aberfoyle Street Epsom for my new wife and me. It cost 4,000 pounds (roughly $8,000 in decimal currency which didn't come in for another five years). My first investment property was a house in Astley Avenue, New Lynn bought in 1963 at a cost of 3000 pounds.
I got into property because I found I was sickened by the thought of a 9-to-5 job. Fearing nothing (as is common with red blooded young men ... and young women too, incidentally) I wanted to be independent.
Yes, I determined pretty early that property was the future for me. If you are going to make money an important objective in your life then you might as well make it BIG and not mess about with nickels and dimes.

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